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bakeryspot2

bakeryspot2

SPOILER ALERT!

Credit Bubble Bulletin : 11/21/15

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I actually thought that I should buy 500 copies of this book and just hand them out at the Fed. He really just did exactly what he thought was the right thing - all the time. But, obviously you don't focus or even give the time of day to think about having your feet shoulder width apart. December 9 - Reuters (Paul Carrel): “Mass-selling German newspaper Bild heaped criticism on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday, a day after the ECB said it would extend its massive stimulus programme for the euro zone. The company hasn’t sold any asset-backed securities since early December… “China accounted for most trust company assets (88% of global trust company assets) and overall growth. S&P500 futures were trading up about 0.3% in early Friday overseas trading, boosted by a somewhat stronger-than-expected PBOC renminbi “fix.” The first “Bomb” hit at 8:02 am eastern: “China to Levy Retaliatory Tariffs on Another $75B of U.S.

“The OTC trading of FX derivatives also rose substantially… Greek 10-year yields rose 10 bps to 1.43% (down 297bps y-t-d). greatwall 99 rose 6.2% from a year earlier in October, versus a median projection of 6.3% and September’s 6.6%. Retail sales expanded 10% from a year earlier, versus an estimated 10.5 percent and 10.3 percent the prior month. The move followed remarks by Japanese Defence Minister Tomomi Inada this month that Tokyo would increase its engagement in the South China Sea through joint training with the US Navy… Lighthizer having dealt with him multiple times at international summits over the past two years in his role as China’s trade minister… August 16 - Wall Street Journal (Laurence Fletcher and Gregory Zuckerman): “A growing exodus from hedge funds extended to two of the biggest names in the industry Tuesday, Tudor Investment Corp. September 10 - Bloomberg (Doug Alexander): “Stocks sales in Canada surged to the highest in a decade this year after Barrick Gold Corp.

June 11 - Bloomberg (Shawn Donnan): “President Donald Trump is eager to crow about the economic weapon he wielded against Mexico to win concessions on immigration: ‘Tariffs are a great negotiating tool,’ he declared… He’s a great man. U.K. 10-year gilt yields surged 26 bps to 0.71% (down 57bps). U.K.'s FTSE equities index rallied 1.3% (up 7.7% y-t-d). Just look at the size and scope of the recent rally, which has dragged down yields across the curve. Europe has fallen steadily in recent months as ultralow volatility, a lack of market-moving news and the rising popularity of passive investment funds have kept many investors on the sidelines. In a recent CBB, I posited it was no coincidence that instability in Chinese money markets was followed not many weeks later by instability in U.S. It was no coincidence that U.S. That could restrict sales or transfers of American technology to Huawei by requiring a government license-a potential body blow to the company, which relies on some U.S. I hold the view that massive leverage has accumulated in U.S. That growth in non-bank (“shadow”) finance over this boom cycle has been driven by entities in the Cayman Islands, China, Ireland and Luxembourg bodes well for the accumulation of leverage and latent risk intermediation issues - not so much for sustainability and stability.

Ms. Tett’s article pinpoints the “belly of the beast.” The GSEs, securitizations, sophisticated mortgage derivatives, and “repo” finance created the nucleus of the risk intermediation and leverage fueling precarious mortgage finance Bubble excess. While interesting - and certainly illustrating the enormous scope of offshore finance - I’m not confident that the BIS and global central bank community have a handle on what evolved into colossal global flows intermediated through securities finance and “offshore” financial centers. 11.7 billion in outflows to mark their biggest withdrawals since early May, while funds that specialize in non-U.S. Spanish bank Banco Santander SA, canceled a planned sale that had been expected at $1 billion or more… Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $1.840 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $1.500 billion (from Lipper). So long as the Fed targets higher asset prices while repeatedly providing liquidity backstops, a culture of speculation becomes only more deeply entrenched. It’s not clear to me how the global system doesn’t turn increasingly unstable, which I believe explains why the ECB and now the Fed have resorted again to QE. Now all and sundry is usually handsets whether or not they are typically kid or maybe grown-up.

Cayman Islands are larger than on those in Italy. Indeed, What the Heck is Happening in the Cayman Islands? Ten-year Portuguese yields gained six bps to 0.20% (down 152bps). Italian 10-year yields jumped 11 bps to 0.94% (down 180ps). Spain's 10-year yields rose 10 bps to 0.24% (down 118bps). German bund yields surged 14 bps to negative 0.44% (down 68bps). French yields jumped 16 bps to negative 0.13% (down 84bps). The French to German 10-year bond spread widened two to 31 bps. Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell eight bps to 3.57% (down 133bps y-o-y). Convoluted, murky stuff: The amalgamation of “offshore financial centres,” “cross-border dollar funding,” “non-bank intermediaries” and “offshore subsidiaries,” make CDOs, special purpose vehicles, and other mortgage financial Bubble era “shadow” financial processes appear rather clear and luminous by comparison. We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed. October 12 - ANSA: “European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended quantitative easing at a conference with former Fed chief Ben Bernanke, saying the policy had helped create seven million jobs in four years. Jerome Powell, October 8th, 2019, during Q&A at a National Association of Business Economics event in Denver: “I’ve known Paul Volcker since I was an Assistant Secretary in the Treasury in 1992 or 1991. Of course, at that time, he had just relatively recently left the Fed - and I was frightened of even meeting him.